Counterpoint Research is predicting Apple’s iPhone 17 lineup will help it nudge Samsung out as the number one phone manufacturer in the world this year, as reported by CNBC and Bloomberg. The report estimates Apple will ship 243 million phones this year, while Samsung will ship 235 million, landing Apple a 19.4 percent share of the global smartphone market, less than 1 percent ahead of Samsung.

Counterpoint says the newly introduced iPhone 17 series garnered 12 percent more sales in its first four weeks than the iPhone 16 lineup, with sales boosted by “lower-than-expected” impact from tariffs.

Different analysts have reported different stats about who is the leader in phone shipments over the last few years, but by Counterpoint’s evaluation, this will be the first time Apple has passed Samsung in phone shipments in 14 years. Based on Counterpoint’s report, it seems like reports of a muted reception for the iPhone Air and ongoing questions about Apple’s progress with AI technology didn’t hold back the iPhone 17 line-up as a whole. Next year, Apple is expected to release a cheaper “17e” model in the spring, and eventually, its first foldable iPhone.